Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-2, 2 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Machado reached on infield single to second, Tatis Jr. scored, Merrill to third.2–5
- 6Rodríguez singled to right, Donovan scored, Raleigh to second.2–4
- 6Raleigh singled to right, Young scored, Donovan to third.1–4
- 2Tatis Jr. singled to center, Campusano scored and Cronenworth scored.0–4
- 2Laureano grounded out to first, Andujar scored, Cronenworth to second, Campusano to third.0–2
- 2Campusano singled to left, Sheets scored, Andujar to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 53%
- ML SEA -122 / SD +102
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 44.1%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -111
- SD +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.4 – 4.1 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +8 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +41 Elo | SD 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +1.04th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 29th of 301–7 | Road vs home | 8–48th of 30 |
| 9th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 148229th of 30 |
| 7th of 301521 | Elo rating | 15314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–10 | 11–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 8–3 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–10 | 9–8–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 11–5 SD in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.