Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Luke RaleyBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Merrill doubled to left, Laureano scored and Campusano scored.6–7
- 9Laureano singled to left, France scored, Campusano to second.6–5
- 9Campusano singled to center, Sheets scored, France to third.6–4
- 9Tatis Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Machado scored.6–3
- 6Bogaerts homered to left center (381 feet), Merrill scored.6–2
- 5Raley homered to right center (434 feet), Arozarena scored.6–0
- 4Donovan singled to right, Arozarena scored and Young scored, Rivas to third.4–0
- 2Canzone doubled to right, Raley scored and Arozarena scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 50%
- ML SEA -112 / SD -108
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 43.2%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -102
- SD +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.0 – 4.0 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +13 | SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +47 Elo | SD 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 3.66th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +1.05th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 29th of 301–6 | Road vs home | 7–412th of 30 |
| 10th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 147929th of 30 |
| 7th of 301522 | Elo rating | 15314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–10 | 11–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 8–2 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–10 | 8–8–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 11–4 SD in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.