Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting2-4
- Bryan WooPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Michael KingPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bogaerts singled to right, Merrill scored.1–4
- 3Bogaerts singled to center, Tatis Jr. scored and Merrill scored.1–3
- 3Tatis Jr. singled to center, Laureano scored.1–1
- 2Canzone hit sacrifice fly to center, Arozarena scored, Raley to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 51%
- ML SEA -115 / SD -105
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 48.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -104
- SD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.5 – 3.5 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +2 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +12 Elo | SD 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 3.87th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.96th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 29th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 6–413th of 30 |
| 12th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 147629th of 30 |
| 7th of 301524 | Elo rating | 15294th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–9 | 10–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 7–2 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 8–7–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 11–3 SD in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.