Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Brandon NimmoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Josh NaylorBatting2-2
- Logan GilbertPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jung doubled to left, Burger scored.5–0
- 9McCutchen hit sacrifice fly to right, Langford scored.4–0
- 7Burger singled to center, Seager scored, Langford to second.3–0
- 3Langford singled to left, Seager scored.2–0
- 1Nimmo homered to right (372 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 55%
- ML TEX +113 / SEA -136
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 53.0%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -123
- TEX +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.0 – 3.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +3 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +21 Elo | SEA 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.922nd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 11th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 7–47th of 30 |
| 6th of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 15089th of 30 |
| 11th of 301515 | Elo rating | 15197th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–9 | 9–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8–2 | 9–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 18–24 SEA in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 42.