Texas Rangers at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh JungBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Duran singled to center, Higashioka scored and Pederson scored, Smith to second.9–6
- 9Pederson singled to center, Jung scored, Higashioka to second.7–6
- 9Higashioka grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Burger scored on throwing error by pitcher Sterner, Jung safe at third on error.6–6
- 8Kurtz doubled to left, Langeliers scored, Wynns scored and Gelof scored.5–6
- 7Jung homered to right (364 feet), Langford scored.5–3
- 6Smith doubled to left, Pederson scored.3–3
- 5Cortes singled to right, Wilson scored, Cortes thrown out at second.2–3
- 5Wilson singled to right, Langeliers scored and Soderstrom scored.2–2
- 5Burger hit sacrifice fly to center, Duran scored.2–0
- 3Nimmo singled to right, Duran scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 50%
- ML TEX -112 / ATH -108
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- TEX: Elo 52.7%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- TEX -102
- ATH +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.0 – 4.0 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −4 | TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +19 Elo | TEX 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.020th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.418th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 10th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 4–27th of 30 |
| 5th of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 15136th of 30 |
| 11th of 301513 | Elo rating | 148823rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–9 | 11–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 8–8–2 | 7–10–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 25–17 ATH in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 42.