Pittsburgh Pirates at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bubba ChandlerPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 5Cruz homered to center (415 feet).1–6
- 4Seager homered to right (382 feet), Osuna scored and Pederson scored.0–6
- 4Pederson singled to right, Smith scored, Osuna to third.0–3
- 3Carter homered to center (385 feet), Jung scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 58%
- ML PIT +129 / TEX -156
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- TEX: Elo 56.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -140
- PIT +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.4 – 4.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +9 | PIT: Bubba Chandler: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +43 Elo | TEX 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 4–418th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15097th of 30 |
| 17th of 301496 | Elo rating | 15139th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–10 | 12–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–5 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 14–10 | 11–11–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 4–7 TEX in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.