Pittsburgh Pirates at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Braxton AshcraftPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Josh JungBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cruz homered to right (432 feet), Cook scored and Mangum scored.8–4
- 9Mangum grounded into fielder's choice to third, Gonzales scored, Cook to second.5–4
- 8Burger singled to center, McCutchen scored and Nimmo scored.4–4
- 5Reynolds singled to right, Davis scored on error and Lowe scored on throwing error by right fielder Nimmo, Reynolds to second.4–2
- 5Lowe singled to left, Horwitz scored, Davis to second.2–2
- 2Jung homered to right (344 feet), Pederson scored.1–2
- 1Ozuna singled to left, Reynolds scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 52%
- ML PIT -118 / TEX -102
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- PIT: Elo 44.6%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- PIT -107
- TEX +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.8 – 3.7 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +4 | PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +37 Elo | TEX 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.65th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 4–314th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15106th of 30 |
| 18th of 301493 | Elo rating | 15169th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–10 | 12–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–5 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–10 | 10–11–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–7 TEX in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.