Pittsburgh Pirates at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Ryan O'HearnBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Carmen MlodzinskiPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Ezequiel DuranBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Jung grounded into fielder's choice to third, Seager scored, Pederson out at second, Burger to third.1–5
- 5Seager singled to center, Duran scored.1–4
- 5Duran doubled to left, Smith scored.1–3
- 2Smith hit sacrifice fly to right, Jung scored, Carter to second.1–2
- 2Carter singled to right, Pederson scored, Jung to third.1–1
- 1O'Hearn singled to center, Cruz scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 51%
- ML PIT -105 / TEX -115
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- TEX: Elo 53.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -104
- PIT +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.0 – 4.0 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −12 | PIT: Carmen Mlodzinski: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +23 Elo | TEX 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 3–317th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15126th of 30 |
| 16th of 301496 | Elo rating | 15149th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–9 | 11–11 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–5 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–9 | 10–10–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–6 TEX in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.