Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Curtis MeadBatting1-4
- Jake IrvinPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Ryan O'HearnBatting3-4
- Carmen MlodzinskiPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 1Gonzales reached on infield single to shortstop, O'Hearn scored, Ozuna to second.0–2
- 1Ozuna singled to right, Reynolds scored, O'Hearn to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 61%
- ML WSH +144 / PIT -175
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- PIT: Elo 57.7%, market 60.8%
- Fair odds
- PIT -155
- WSH +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.3 – 5.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −9 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mason Montgomery (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +54 Elo | PIT 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 61.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 60.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 5.17th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.4 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–4 | Road vs home | 5–313th of 30 |
| 1st of 301523 | Opponent Elo | 150214th of 30 |
| 28th of 301455 | Elo rating | 149220th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–7 | 10–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–4–1 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 9–14 PIT in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 23.