Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Foster GriffinPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Contreras homered to right center (378 feet).3–1
- 9Ruiz doubled to right, Nuñez scored.3–0
- 5Wood doubled to left, Nuñez scored and Young scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 62%
- ML WSH +149 / MIL -181
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 64.9%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- MIL -160
- WSH +160 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.5 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | 0 | WSH: Foster Griffin: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIL: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +107 Elo | MIL 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 61.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 306.0 | Runs scored | 5.64th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.2 | Runs allowed | 4.114th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.54th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 7th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 5–22nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301526 | Opponent Elo | 148724th of 30 |
| 28th of 301452 | Elo rating | 15462nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–6 | 9–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 6–2 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–2–1 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 8–11 MIL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.