Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting4-5, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chad PatrickPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wood doubled to right, Vivas scored, Millas to third.7–3
- 9Millas hit sacrifice bunt, Nuñez scored, Vivas to second.6–3
- 9Vivas hit sacrifice bunt, Wiemer scored, Nuñez to second, Nuñez safe at third on throwing error by pitcher Megill.5–3
- 9García Jr. singled to center, Abrams scored, Wiemer to third.4–3
- 7Young doubled to right, García Jr. scored, Young out stretching at third.3–3
- 1Bauers homered to right (428 feet), Turang scored and Mitchell scored.2–3
- 1Abrams doubled to center, Mead scored.2–0
- 1Mead singled to center, Wood scored, Mead to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 64%
- ML WSH +169 / MIL -207
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 68.0%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- MIL -181
- WSH +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.6 – 4.9 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +2 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Aaron Ashby: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +131 Elo | MIL 68.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 65.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.9 | Runs scored | 5.84th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.5 | Runs allowed | 3.89th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.6 | Margin | +2.03rd of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 10th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 5–11st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301524 | Opponent Elo | 148923rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301448 | Elo rating | 15492nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–6 | 9–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 6–1 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–2–1 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 7–11 MIL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.