Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Pirates- Brandon LoweBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Bart homered to left center (383 feet).5–4
- 4Gonzales grounded out to second, Reynolds scored, Ozuna to third.5–3
- 4Ozuna doubled to left, Lowe scored, Reynolds to third.5–2
- 4García Jr. singled to right, Nuñez scored, Wood to third.5–1
- 3Abrams homered to right (389 feet).4–1
- 1Lowe homered to right center (376 feet).3–1
- 1Abrams singled to center, House scored, Lile to second.3–0
- 1Lile singled to center, García Jr. scored, House to third.2–0
- 1House singled to center, Wood scored, García Jr. to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 63%
- ML WSH +157 / PIT -192
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.2 pts
- PIT: Elo 54.6%, market 62.8%
- Fair odds
- PIT -169
- WSH +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.4 – 5.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −14 | WSH: PJ Poulin: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +32 Elo | PIT 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 62.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.9 | Runs scored | 5.17th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.5 | Runs allowed | 3.98th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.24th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 5–23rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301524 | Opponent Elo | 150512th of 30 |
| 28th of 301453 | Elo rating | 149320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–7 | 10–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–3–1 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 8–14 PIT in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 22.