Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carmen MlodzinskiPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-3
- Shota ImanagaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Reynolds homered to left (385 feet), O'Hearn scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 58%
- ML PIT +129 / CHC -156
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- CHC: Elo 57.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -140
- PIT +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.9 – 3.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −13 | PIT: Carmen Mlodzinski: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +49 Elo | CHC 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.77th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.05th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 10th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 3–315th of 30 |
| 14th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 147727th of 30 |
| 21st of 301488 | Elo rating | 15285th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–6 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 6–4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 12–27 CHC in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 39.