Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Jacob YoungBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Paxton SchultzPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Brandon LoweBatting3-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bart hit sacrifice fly to left, Davis scored.5–16
- 7Nuñez singled to right, Tena scored and Vivas scored.5–15
- 7Young homered to left (385 feet), Lile scored.3–15
- 6Lowe homered to right (410 feet), Mangum scored and Cruz scored.1–15
- 6Cruz singled to right, Griffin scored and Horwitz scored, Mangum to third.1–12
- 6Griffin singled to right, O'Hearn scored, Horwitz to second.1–10
- 6O'Hearn doubled to center, Reynolds scored.1–9
- 6Reynolds tripled to right, Davis scored, Cruz scored and Lowe scored.1–8
- 3Horwitz homered to right (376 feet).1–5
- 2Reynolds singled to left, Cruz scored, Lowe to second.1–4
- 2Lowe singled to left, Davis scored and Mangum scored, Cruz to third.1–3
- 2Cruz walked, Griffin scored, Davis to second, Mangum to third.1–1
- 1Abrams homered to right (379 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 67%
- ML WSH +189 / PIT -232
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- PIT: Elo 58.1%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- PIT -202
- WSH +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 4.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +4 | WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +57 Elo | PIT 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 67.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 66.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.9 | Runs scored | 4.410th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–3 | Road vs home | 4–26th of 30 |
| 1st of 301527 | Opponent Elo | 150910th of 30 |
| 28th of 301457 | Elo rating | 149022nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–6 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–3–1 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 8–13 PIT in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 21.