Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Brandon LoweBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Bubba ChandlerPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Moises BallesterosBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kelly singled to center, Kingery scored, Suzuki to second, Happ to third.6–7
- 8Busch singled to left, Suzuki scored on error and Swanson scored on throwing error by left fielder Reynolds, Busch to second.6–6
- 7Bregman popped out to second, Swanson scored.6–4
- 5Bregman hit sacrifice fly to left, Hoerner scored.6–3
- 5Lowe homered to right center (444 feet).6–2
- 3Ballesteros homered to center (427 feet).5–2
- 3Swanson homered to left center (391 feet).5–1
- 2Lowe homered to right center (372 feet), Ozuna scored, Horwitz scored and Griffin scored.5–0
- 1Cruz homered to center (422 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 55%
- ML PIT +113 / CHC -136
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 58.6%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -123
- PIT +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 6.0 – 6.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 12.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +10 | PIT: Bubba Chandler: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +61 Elo | CHC 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.215th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.63rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 5th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 3–527th of 30 |
| 11th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 148325th of 30 |
| 21st of 301491 | Elo rating | 15256th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–6 | 5–9 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 7–5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 14–27 CHC in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 41.