Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting4-5
- Braxton AshcraftPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Cubs- Alex BregmanBatting2-6, 1 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 11Gonzales scored on error, Lowe safe at first on throwing error by pitcher Thielbar, Cruz safe at third on error.4–3
- 9Bregman singled to center, Swanson scored, Shaw to third.3–3
- 7Swanson grounded out to shortstop, Amaya scored.3–2
- 5Hoerner grounded out to second, Conforto scored, Swanson to third.3–1
- 3O'Hearn hit sacrifice fly to right, Lowe scored.3–0
- 3Reynolds singled to right, Cruz scored, Lowe to third.2–0
- 2Horwitz grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Ozuna scored, Yorke out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 57%
- ML PIT +123 / CHC -149
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- CHC: Elo 55.9%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -133
- PIT +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.9 – 3.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +4 | PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHC: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +41 Elo | CHC 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.312th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.54th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 6th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 3–425th of 30 |
| 13th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 148026th of 30 |
| 21st of 301490 | Elo rating | 15265th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–6 | 5–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 6–5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 13–27 CHC in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 40.