Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon WoodruffPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ruiz singled to center, Abrams scored and Young scored, Ruiz to second.8–6
- 7Sánchez homered to left center (400 feet), Turang scored and Contreras scored.6–6
- 7House singled to right, Mead scored.6–3
- 7Wood stole home, Mead stole second.5–3
- 7Wood stole home, Mead stole second.5–3
- 7Mead singled to center, Tena scored, Wood to third.4–3
- 7Tena singled to right, Young scored.3–3
- 5Turang homered to center (433 feet).2–3
- 4Bauers homered to right (391 feet).2–2
- 4Abrams hit sacrifice fly to left, García Jr. scored, Lile to third.2–1
- 4Wood homered to right (393 feet).1–1
- 3Turang homered to left center (378 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 66%
- ML WSH +179 / MIL -219
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 66.1%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- MIL -192
- WSH +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +9 | WSH: Zack Littell: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Brandon Woodruff: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +116 Elo | MIL 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 65.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.8 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.013th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.34th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 4th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 5–312th of 30 |
| 1st of 301527 | Opponent Elo | 148523rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301454 | Elo rating | 15432nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–6 | 9–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–3–1 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 9–11 MIL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 20.