Tampa Bay Rays at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Caminero homered to left (398 feet).3–6
- 8Yorke homered to left (394 feet).2–6
- 6Horwitz homered to right (383 feet).2–5
- 5Reynolds singled to left, Cook scored and Gonzales scored.2–4
- 5Gonzales singled to right, Bart scored, Gonzales to second, Cook to third.2–2
- 5Feduccia singled to right, Palacios scored and DeLuca scored.2–1
- 1Reynolds grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Mangum scored, Gonzales out at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 51%
- ML TB -105 / PIT -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- PIT: Elo 48.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.0 – 4.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −13 | TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +12 Elo | TB 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.19th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.05th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 8th of 308–6 | Road vs home | 7–510th of 30 |
| 12th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149817th of 30 |
| 15th of 301502 | Elo rating | 149319th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–7 | 12–9 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–3 | 7–5 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 13–5–2 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 8–3 PIT in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.