Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Steven MatzPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Everson PereiraBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Anthony KayPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Walls walked, Aranda scored, Feduccia to second, Palacios to third.5–3
- 9Feduccia walked, Díaz scored, Palacios to second, Aranda to third.4–3
- 9Caminero homered to left center (375 feet).3–3
- 8Pereira homered to left center (401 feet).2–3
- 7Palacios singled to left, Mullins scored, Díaz to second.2–2
- 6Quero hit a ground rule double, Meidroth scored, Pereira to third.1–2
- 4Walls singled to left, DeLuca scored, Fortes to second.1–1
- 3Vargas homered to left (380 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 54%
- ML TB -131 / CHW +109
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- TB: Elo 55.8%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -119
- CHW +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.4 – 4.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +4 | TB: Steven Matz: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Jordan Leasure: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +41 Elo | TB 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.229th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.326th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 3–527th of 30 |
| 10th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150413th of 30 |
| 15th of 301502 | Elo rating | 144129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–6 | 7–11 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders | 12–3–2 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 12–9 CHW in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.