Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jonny DeLucaBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jesse ScholtensPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Reese McGuireBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Acuña grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Hill scored, McGuire out at second.8–3
- 9McGuire singled to center, Murray scored, Hill to third.8–2
- 9Antonacci scored on Seymour wild pitch, Hill to second on wild pitch by Seymour, Murray to third on wild pitch by Seymour.8–1
- 9Antonacci scored on Seymour wild pitch, Hill to second on wild pitch by Seymour, Murray to third on wild pitch by Seymour.8–1
- 7DeLuca homered to left center (393 feet), Aranda scored and Díaz scored.8–0
- 7Díaz doubled to right, Caminero scored, Aranda to third.5–0
- 6Fraley homered to right (398 feet).4–0
- 5Aranda doubled to right, Walls scored.3–0
- 5Caminero grounded out to second, Feduccia scored, Walls to third.2–0
- 3Caminero homered to left (393 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 50%
- ML TB -112 / CHW -108
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- TB: Elo 51.8%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -102
- CHW +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.3 – 4.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −28 | −3 | TB: Jesse Scholtens: team allows 1.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +12 Elo | TB 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.228th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 5.124th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −1.930th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 3–426th of 30 |
| 9th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 150412th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Elo rating | 144429th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–6 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | — |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders | 11–3–2 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 11–9 CHW in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 20.