Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Ben WilliamsonBatting2-3, 3 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Everson PereiraBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Noah SchultzPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Murakami homered to right (398 feet), Vargas scored.8–5
- 7DeLuca doubled to left, Williamson scored.8–3
- 7Williamson doubled to center, Vilade scored.7–3
- 6Díaz singled to center, Fortes scored, Walls to third.6–3
- 6Fortes reached on infield single to third, Williamson scored.5–3
- 3Pereira homered to left center (416 feet), Meidroth scored and Murakami scored.4–3
- 3Williamson doubled to left, Vilade scored.4–0
- 1Williamson hit sacrifice bunt, Caminero scored and Vilade scored on throwing error by pitcher Schultz, Williamson to second.3–0
- 1Vilade doubled to left, Aranda scored, Caminero to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 56%
- ML TB -142 / CHW +117
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- TB: Elo 55.6%, market 56.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -127
- CHW +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.3 – 3.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +2 | TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Noah Schultz (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TB +39 Elo | TB 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 56.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.129th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.7 | Margin | −1.930th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 3–316th of 30 |
| 8th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 150611th of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Elo rating | 144629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–6 | 7–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | — |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders | 10–3–2 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 10–9 CHW in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.