Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting2-6, 1 RBI
- Foster GriffinPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Pirates- Marcell OzunaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Braxton AshcraftPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Wood singled to right, Vivas scored.8–7
- 9Lowe reached on infield single to shortstop, Mangum scored, Yorke to second, Cruz to third.7–7
- 7Lile scored, Young to second, Abrams to third on Ramírez wild pitch.7–6
- 7Lile scored on Ramírez wild pitch, Young to second on wild pitch by Ramírez, Abrams to third on wild pitch by Ramírez.7–6
- 7Young hit by pitch, Wood scored, Abrams to second, Lile to third.6–6
- 6Gonzales singled to right, Horwitz scored, Gonzales thrown out at second, Mangum to third.5–6
- 6Griffin tripled to left, Bart scored.5–5
- 6Wiemer doubled to right, Vivas scored.5–4
- 5Ozuna homered to left (423 feet), Mangum scored and Cruz scored.4–4
- 5Cruz doubled to right, Cook scored, Mangum to third.4–1
- 5García Jr. scored on throwing error by pitcher Ashcraft.4–0
- 5García Jr. scored on throwing error by pitcher Ashcraft.4–0
- 5García Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Millas scored, Vivas and Nuñez scored on throwing error by shortstop Griffin, García Jr. to second.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 60%
- ML WSH +139 / PIT -169
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- PIT: Elo 58.8%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -150
- WSH +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.8 – 4.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +15 | WSH: Foster Griffin: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +62 Elo | PIT 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.910th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.1 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–5 | Road vs home | 6–37th of 30 |
| 1st of 301522 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 28th of 301453 | Elo rating | 149320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–8 | 11–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–5–1 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 9–15 PIT in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 24.