Tampa Bay Rays at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Cedric MullinsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Ryan O'HearnBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 13Griffin singled to right, Mangum scored, Horwitz to third.8–7
- 13Mullins homered to right center (403 feet), DeLuca scored.8–6
- 11Griffin grounded into fielder's choice to second, Yorke scored.6–6
- 11Walls scored on pickoff error by pitcher Ramírez.6–5
- 11Walls scored on pickoff error by pitcher Ramírez.6–5
- 11Walls scored on error.6–5
- 11Walls scored on pickoff error by pitcher Ramírez.6–5
- 8Yorke singled to right, Lowe scored, Cook to third.5–5
- 5Mullins singled to center, DeLuca scored.5–4
- 5DeLuca doubled to center, Díaz scored and Aranda scored.4–4
- 5Aranda singled to center, Caminero scored.2–4
- 5Caminero doubled to left, Feduccia scored.1–4
- 4Ozuna homered to left (387 feet), O'Hearn scored.0–4
- 1O'Hearn homered to right (379 feet), Reynolds scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 59%
- ML TB +133 / PIT -161
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- PIT: Elo 52.9%, market 59.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -144
- TB +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.4 – 4.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +2 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +20 Elo | PIT 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 59.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.09th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.14th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 12th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 7–47th of 30 |
| 12th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149816th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Elo rating | 149518th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–7 | 12–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–3 | 7–4 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–5–2 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 7–3 PIT in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.