Tampa Bay Rays at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bubba ChandlerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lowe doubled to center, Cook scored and Griffin scored.1–5
- 6Cruz homered to right center (385 feet), Griffin scored.1–3
- 6Caminero singled to center, Simpson scored.1–1
- 2Horwitz doubled to right, Ozuna scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 52%
- ML TB +100 / PIT -120
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- PIT: Elo 49.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.2 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −5 | TB: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Bubba Chandler: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +7 Elo | TB 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.010th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.05th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–5 | Road vs home | 6–413th of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149816th of 30 |
| 15th of 301503 | Elo rating | 149220th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–6 | 11–8 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–3 | 6–4 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–4–2 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 7–2 PIT in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.