Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Brandon NimmoBatting2-4
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Carter doubled to right, Langford scored, Pederson to third.2–5
- 7Jung hit sacrifice fly to right, Seager scored, Langford to third.1–5
- 5Arozarena homered to left (347 feet), Rodríguez scored.0–5
- 2Crawford homered to right (369 feet), Garver scored.0–3
- 1Refsnyder homered to left (385 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 56%
- ML TEX +119 / SEA -143
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.6%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -129
- TEX +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.5 – 4.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +11 | TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +39 Elo | SEA 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.923rd of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.76th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 11th of 308–7 | Road vs home | 8–59th of 30 |
| 6th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 15097th of 30 |
| 11th of 301516 | Elo rating | 15197th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–10 | 10–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 10–9–2 | 10–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 19–25 SEA in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 44.