Chicago White Sox at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Noah SchultzPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Athletics- Darell HernaizBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Gelof scored on Leasure wild pitch.7–4
- 7Gelof scored on Leasure wild pitch.7–4
- 7Gelof doubled to right, Hernaiz scored and Soderstrom scored, Gelof to third.7–3
- 5Montgomery homered to center (419 feet).7–1
- 5Murakami homered to right (425 feet), Vargas scored.6–1
- 2Hernaiz homered to left (396 feet).4–1
- 2Vargas homered to left (390 feet), Meidroth scored.4–0
- 2Hill homered to left center (415 feet).2–0
- 1Quero hit sacrifice fly to left, Meidroth scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 59%
- ML CHW +135 / ATH -163
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- ATH: Elo 60.7%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- ATH -146
- CHW +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.3 – 5.2 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +10 | CHW: Noah Schultz: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +76 Elo | ATH 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.118th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | −0.823rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–8 | Road vs home | 5–416th of 30 |
| 15th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15069th of 30 |
| 29th of 301443 | Elo rating | 148324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–12 | 11–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 9–11 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–8 | 10–10–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 8–13 ATH in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.