Chicago White Sox at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Munetaka MurakamiBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ibáñez grounded out to third, Muncy scored.9–2
- 7Murakami homered to center (431 feet), Meidroth scored, Acuña scored and Benintendi scored.9–1
- 5Benintendi doubled to right, Acuña scored.5–1
- 5Acuña doubled to right, Meidroth scored.4–1
- 4Kurtz singled to right, Langeliers scored.3–1
- 3Quero grounded out to first, Vargas scored, Antonacci to second, Montgomery to third.3–0
- 3Montgomery singled to center, Murakami scored, Vargas to third.2–0
- 1Montgomery doubled to right, Benintendi scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 59%
- ML CHW +135 / ATH -163
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- ATH: Elo 57.1%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- ATH -146
- CHW +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.1 – 4.9 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −4 | CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +50 Elo | ATH 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | −0.519th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Road vs home | 4–315th of 30 |
| 13th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15135th of 30 |
| 29th of 301440 | Elo rating | 148623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–12 | 11–8 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 7–11 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 11–8 | 8–10–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 7–12 ATH in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.