Chicago White Sox at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting1-6, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 11Muncy hit sacrifice fly to left, Wilson scored.6–7
- 7Kurtz homered to right (386 feet), Langeliers scored.6–6
- 7Murakami homered to center (415 feet).6–4
- 6Butler grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Muncy scored.5–4
- 5Soderstrom singled to left, Wynns scored, Kurtz to third.5–3
- 3McNeil hit sacrifice fly to right, Butler scored.5–2
- 2Wilson homered to left (384 feet).5–1
- 2Benintendi homered to right (372 feet), Peters scored and McGuire scored.5–0
- 2McGuire singled to left, Pereira scored, Peters to second.2–0
- 2Montgomery homered to right (397 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 59%
- ML CHW +135 / ATH -163
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- ATH: Elo 59.6%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- ATH -146
- CHW +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.1 – 4.9 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −2 | CHW: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +68 Elo | ATH 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.020th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | −0.824th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–7 | Road vs home | 4–420th of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15106th of 30 |
| 29th of 301444 | Elo rating | 148224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–12 | 11–9 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 8–11 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 12–8 | 9–10–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 8–12 ATH in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 20.