Athletics at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wilson singled to center, Kurtz scored, Soderstrom to second, Langeliers to third.5–2
- 7Langeliers homered to center (417 feet).4–2
- 6Wilson doubled to left, Soderstrom scored.3–2
- 5Raleigh homered to left center (367 feet).2–2
- 4McNeil homered to right center (395 feet).2–1
- 3Naylor hit sacrifice fly to center, Refsnyder scored.1–1
- 1Soderstrom doubled to right, Kurtz scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 61%
- ML ATH +143 / SEA -173
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 58.3%, market 60.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -154
- ATH +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.5 – 4.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −6 | ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +58 Elo | SEA 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 60.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.923rd of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.86th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 10th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 9–610th of 30 |
| 10th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15097th of 30 |
| 25th of 301482 | Elo rating | 15198th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–11 | 11–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 8–10 |
| Underdog | 11–5 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 12–10–1 | 11–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 12–28 SEA in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 40.