Athletics at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Carlos CortesBatting4-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Dominic CanzoneBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rivas doubled to right, Young scored.6–4
- 8Butler singled to right, Wilson scored and McNeil scored.6–3
- 8Muncy hit sacrifice fly to right, Soderstrom scored, McNeil to second, Wilson to third.4–3
- 6Langeliers homered to center (432 feet).3–3
- 6Kurtz homered to center (416 feet).2–3
- 4Cortes homered to right (379 feet).1–3
- 2Canzone homered to right center (365 feet).0–3
- 1Naylor doubled to right, Rodríguez scored.0–2
- 1Raleigh homered to left center (382 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML ATH +124 / SEA -149
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.6%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -134
- ATH +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.7 – 4.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −11 | ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +46 Elo | SEA 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.924th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 12th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 9–56th of 30 |
| 10th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15097th of 30 |
| 26th of 301480 | Elo rating | 15217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–11 | 11–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 10–5 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–10–1 | 10–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 11–28 SEA in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 39.