Athletics at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Naylor singled to left, Raleigh scored, Rodríguez to second.4–5
- 9Kurtz homered to center (438 feet).4–4
- 7Rodríguez grounded out to shortstop, Crawford scored.3–4
- 6Refsnyder hit sacrifice fly to center, Naylor scored, Garver to third.3–3
- 3Raleigh homered to right (405 feet).3–2
- 3Wilson doubled to left, Cortes scored.3–1
- 1Arozarena hit sacrifice fly to left, Crawford scored.2–1
- 1McNeil singled to center, Langeliers scored on error, Cortes to second, Cortes safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Rodríguez.2–0
- 1Soderstrom hit sacrifice fly to center, Kurtz scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 63%
- ML ATH +157 / SEA -192
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 58.5%, market 62.8%
- Fair odds
- SEA -169
- ATH +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.2 – 4.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +1 | ATH: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +60 Elo | SEA 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 62.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 62.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.825th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.87th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.6 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 9th of 308–6 | Road vs home | 9–714th of 30 |
| 11th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15087th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301485 | Elo rating | 15168th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–11 | 11–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 8–11 |
| Underdog | 12–5 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 12–11–1 | 11–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 13–28 SEA in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 41.