New York Yankees at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max FriedPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Joc PedersonBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Osuna singled to center, Burger scored, Smith to second.4–2
- 7Pederson homered to left center (415 feet).4–1
- 4Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (406 feet).4–0
- 3Judge homered to left (414 feet).3–0
- 3Rice homered to center (404 feet), Grisham scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 59%
- ML NYY -163 / TEX +135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 53.5%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -146
- TEX +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.4 – 3.6 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −2 | NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +24 Elo | NYY 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 60.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.7 | Margin | +0.39th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3010–5 | Road vs home | 6–618th of 30 |
| 24th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 15076th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301552 | Elo rating | 151210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–11 | 13–15 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–10 | 5–10 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 12–14–2 | 12–14–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 10–9 TEX in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 19.