Athletics at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Jacob WilsonBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Josh JungBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Jung homered to right center (381 feet), Seager scored.3–4
- 3Seager singled to center, Carter scored, Haggerty to third.3–2
- 3Nimmo hit sacrifice fly to left, Jansen scored.3–1
- 3Wilson hit sacrifice fly to right, Kurtz scored, Thomas to third.3–0
- 3Thomas singled to center, Langeliers scored, Kurtz to second.2–0
- 2Hernaiz singled to left, Wilson scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 54%
- ML ATH +109 / TEX -132
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- TEX: Elo 54.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -119
- ATH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.8 – 4.2 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −7 | ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +28 Elo | TEX 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.85th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.39th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 9th of 309–7 | Road vs home | 5–517th of 30 |
| 9th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15095th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301488 | Elo rating | 15129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–11 | 13–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 14–5 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 14–11–1 | 12–12–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 18–26 TEX in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 44.