New York Yankees at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Rangers- Josh JungBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jung singled to left, Jansen scored, Nimmo to second.3–2
- 9Jansen tripled to left, McCutchen scored.3–1
- 9Judge homered to left center (424 feet).3–0
- 7Wells homered to right (376 feet).2–0
- 1Bellinger doubled to center, Judge scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 53%
- ML NYY -122 / TEX +102
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 53.9%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -111
- TEX +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.6 – 3.4 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +12 | NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +27 Elo | NYY 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.7 | Margin | +0.29th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3011–5 | Road vs home | 6–723rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 15106th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301553 | Elo rating | 151010th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–11 | 13–16 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 15–10 | 5–10 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 12–15–2 | 12–15–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 11–9 TEX in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 20.