Detroit Tigers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- JR RitchiePitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Olson homered to right center (397 feet), Albies scored.3–4
- 3Greene homered to center (417 feet).3–2
- 2Jung scored, McGonigle to second on pickoff error by pitcher Ritchie.2–2
- 2Jung scored, McGonigle to second on pickoff error by pitcher Ritchie.2–2
- 2McGonigle singled to center, Pérez scored, Jung to third.1–2
- 1Albies homered to left (400 feet), Baldwin scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 56%
- ML DET -143 / ATL +119
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.1 pts
- DET: Elo 46.2%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -129
- ATL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.3 – 3.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −3 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: JR Ritchie: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +27 Elo | ATL 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.71st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.43rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +2.31st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 28th of 305–13 | Road vs home | 11–52nd of 30 |
| 13th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149026th of 30 |
| 14th of 301505 | Elo rating | 15295th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–17 | 22–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 8–10 | 15–8 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 7–0 |
| Overs–unders | 15–13–2 | 13–14–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–9 ATL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.