Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Gleyber TorresBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Reds- Nathaniel LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Rhett LowderPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Torres homered to right center (388 feet), McGonigle scored.8–3
- 7Vierling hit sacrifice fly to center, Carpenter scored.6–3
- 7Torkelson homered to left center (421 feet).5–3
- 7Lee homered to center (402 feet), Torres scored.4–3
- 5McLain doubled to left, Hayes scored.2–3
- 4Bleday homered to center (403 feet).2–2
- 2Lowe homered to right center (372 feet).2–1
- 1Carpenter doubled to right, Torres scored and Greene scored, Torkelson to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 50%
- ML DET -112 / CIN -108
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- DET: Elo 45.1%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -102
- CIN +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.5 – 4.5 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +6 | DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Rhett Lowder: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +34 Elo | CIN 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.29th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 28th of 304–12 | Road vs home | 8–613th of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149323rd of 30 |
| 15th of 301504 | Elo rating | 151012th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–16 | 16–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–10 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders | 14–12–2 | 15–11–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 5–6 CIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 11.