Milwaukee Brewers at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Chad PatrickPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Casey MizePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Carpenter homered to right (379 feet).2–5
- 8Bauers singled to center, Rengifo scored.2–4
- 5Keith singled to right, McGonigle scored.1–4
- 5McGonigle doubled to right, Báez scored.1–3
- 4Torkelson homered to left center (400 feet), Greene scored.1–2
- 3Contreras singled to center, Turang scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 55%
- ML MIL +113 / DET -136
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- DET: Elo 45.8%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -123
- MIL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.8 – 4.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −6 | MIL: DL Hall: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +29 Elo | MIL 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 8–21st of 30 |
| 27th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301546 | Elo rating | 150415th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–9 | 10–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–9 | 11–11–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 6–4 DET in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.