Toronto Blue Jays at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Andres GimenezBatting2-3
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-4
- Brandon SproatPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ortiz hit sacrifice bunt to catcher, Mitchell scored, Hamilton to second.1–2
- 4Rengifo hit sacrifice fly to left, Turang scored.1–1
- 3Heineman hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Giménez scored, Clement to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 51%
- ML TOR -105 / MIL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- MIL: Elo 54.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -104
- TOR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.2 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −18 | TOR: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Brandon Sproat: team allows 0.91 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +30 Elo | MIL 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.27th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.97th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301–4 | Road vs home | 6–516th of 30 |
| 27th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 148725th of 30 |
| 8th of 301518 | Elo rating | 15402nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–12 | 10–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–10 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 5–6 MIL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.