Toronto Blue Jays at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting1-3
- Dylan CeasePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Chad PatrickPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Turang grounded out to second, Frelick scored, Contreras to second.1–2
- 8Contreras singled to right, Hamilton scored, Frelick to third.1–1
- 1Sánchez hit sacrifice fly to left, Varsho scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 53%
- ML TOR -126 / MIL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 44.2%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -114
- MIL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.9 – 3.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +7 | TOR: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Chad Patrick: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +41 Elo | MIL 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.45th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.98th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301–3 | Road vs home | 5–518th of 30 |
| 28th of 301481 | Opponent Elo | 148526th of 30 |
| 8th of 301519 | Elo rating | 15393rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–11 | 9–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 5–5 MIL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.