Toronto Blue Jays at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Contreras singled to left, Ortiz scored.9–7
- 10Straw doubled to left, Sánchez scored and Guerrero Jr. scored.9–6
- 10Guerrero Jr. doubled to left, Clement scored.7–6
- 9Lockridge doubled to left, Turang scored, Bauers to third.6–6
- 9Turang singled to left, Frelick scored.6–5
- 9Clement singled to left, Okamoto scored, Clement thrown out at second.6–4
- 9Giménez grounded out to second, Schneider scored, Okamoto to second.5–4
- 9Okamoto singled to left, Straw scored, Schneider to third.4–4
- 8Guerrero Jr. grounded out to shortstop, Sosa scored, Varsho to third.3–4
- 7Sánchez homered to left (409 feet).2–4
- 6Varsho homered to right center (378 feet).2–3
- 5Giménez homered to right (392 feet).1–3
- 4Bauers homered to center (418 feet), Turang scored and Sánchez scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 53%
- ML TOR +102 / MIL -122
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 53.4%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- MIL -111
- TOR +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.6 – 3.9 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −6 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +24 Elo | MIL 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.36th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–3 | Road vs home | 5–414th of 30 |
| 30th of 301477 | Opponent Elo | 148326th of 30 |
| 9th of 301517 | Elo rating | 15412nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–11 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 6–4 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–5 MIL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.