Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon WoodruffPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Connor NorbyBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hernández grounded into fielder's choice to third, Lopez scored, Caissie out at second, Norby to third.5–2
- 6Turang singled to center, Ortiz scored, Frelick to second.5–1
- 6Frelick grounded into fielder's choice to second, Mitchell scored, Ortiz to second.4–1
- 5Turang homered to center (402 feet), Contreras scored.3–1
- 4Lockridge singled to center, Rengifo scored.1–1
- 2Norby singled to center, Hicks scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 52%
- ML MIL +100 / MIA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- MIA: Elo 43.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -109
- MIL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.7 – 3.8 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +5 | MIL: Brandon Woodruff: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +44 Elo | MIL 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.9 | Margin | 0.012th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 5th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 7–47th of 30 |
| 28th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 148925th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301543 | Elo rating | 148125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–8 | 7–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders | 11–8 | 13–5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–1–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 10–10 MIA in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 20.