Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Agustin RamirezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Braves- Austin RileyBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hicks singled to right, Edwards scored, Ramírez to second.10–4
- 6Hicks reached on infield single to second, Marsee scored, Ramírez to second.9–4
- 6Ramírez reached on infield single to third, Hernández scored, Marsee to third.8–4
- 6Norby homered to left (380 feet).7–4
- 5Riley grounded out to second, Acuña Jr. scored, Baldwin to third.6–4
- 5Ramírez homered to left center (418 feet), Pauley scored and Edwards scored.6–3
- 4Smith hit sacrifice fly to right, Riley scored.3–3
- 4Yastrzemski singled to right, Olson scored, Riley to third.3–2
- 4Riley singled to left, Baldwin scored, Olson to third.3–1
- 4Norby singled to right, Ramírez scored, Lopez to second.3–0
- 4Lopez singled to left, Edwards scored, Ramírez to second.2–0
- 4Hicks hit sacrifice fly to right, Marsee scored, Edwards to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 57%
- ML MIA +124 / ATL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.2%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -134
- MIA +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.7 – 4.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −3 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +57 Elo | ATL 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.63rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 2.81st of 30 |
| 13th of 300.0 | Margin | +2.91st of 30 |
| 28th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 6–37th of 30 |
| 27th of 301480 | Opponent Elo | 149420th of 30 |
| 24th of 301481 | Elo rating | 15189th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–11 | 12–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 8–4 |
| Underdog | 1–5 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 10–5–1 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 13–26 ATL in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 39.