Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jakob MarseeBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Braves- Dominic SmithBatting3-4, 4 RBI
- Reynaldo LopezPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Smith doubled to center, Albies scored, Baldwin scored and Yastrzemski scored.5–6
- 8Lopez singled to right, Ramírez scored, Hicks to third.5–3
- 3Olson doubled to right, Baldwin scored.4–3
- 3Baldwin doubled to center, Dubón scored.4–2
- 2Smith singled to right, Albies scored.4–1
- 2Marsee singled to center, Pauley scored.4–0
- 2Pauley doubled to right, Norby scored, Sanoja thrown out at home.3–0
- 2Norby singled to center, Lopez scored, Norby to second.2–0
- 1Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to right, Marsee scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 59%
- ML MIA +135 / ATL -163
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 59.5%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -146
- MIA +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.8 – 4.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +15 | MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +67 Elo | ATL 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.54th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.21st of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +2.42nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–5 | Road vs home | 6–412th of 30 |
| 26th of 301482 | Opponent Elo | 149420th of 30 |
| 24th of 301485 | Elo rating | 151511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–11 | 12–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 8–5 |
| Underdog | 2–5 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 11–5–1 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 14–26 ATL in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 40.