Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Liam HicksBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hernández grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Norby scored, Slater safe at second on error.3–6
- 8Hicks homered to right (358 feet), Lopez scored.2–6
- 7Olson homered to right (423 feet), Baldwin scored.0–6
- 7Baldwin singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored.0–4
- 6Riley homered to left center (400 feet).0–3
- 2Dubón singled to left, Yastrzemski scored, Smith to second.0–2
- 2Albies homered to right center (370 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 59%
- ML MIA +135 / ATL -163
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.8%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -146
- MIA +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.1 – 4.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | 0 | MIA: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +48 Elo | ATL 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.63rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.31st of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +2.32nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–6 | Road vs home | 7–411th of 30 |
| 26th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 149320th of 30 |
| 25th of 301484 | Elo rating | 151510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–11 | 12–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 8–6 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 12–5–1 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 14–27 ATL in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 41.