Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Garrett MitchellBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Coleman CrowPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Marsee scored on Megill wild pitch.7–5
- 10Marsee scored on Megill wild pitch.7–5
- 10Mitchell doubled to left, Ortiz scored and Bauers scored, Rengifo to third.7–4
- 10Rengifo grounded into fielder's choice to second, Turang scored on error by catcher Ramírez, Bauers to second, Ortiz to third.5–4
- 8Ramírez doubled to left, Edwards scored.4–4
- 6Lopez homered to center (401 feet), Edwards scored.4–3
- 6Rengifo doubled to center, Bauers scored.4–1
- 4Caissie hit sacrifice fly to center, Lopez scored.3–1
- 4Rengifo scored on throwing error by catcher Ramírez, Jones stole third.3–0
- 4Rengifo scored on throwing error by catcher Ramírez, Jones stole third.3–0
- 4Jones grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Bauers scored, Mitchell out at second, Rengifo to third.2–0
- 4Mitchell reached on infield single to second, Sánchez scored, Rengifo to second, Bauers to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 51%
- ML MIL -105 / MIA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- MIA: Elo 45.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -104
- MIL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.0 – 4.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +3 | MIL: Coleman Crow (no track record yet) · MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +33 Elo | MIL 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 11th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 7–34th of 30 |
| 26th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 148528th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301541 | Elo rating | 148225th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–8 | 7–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders | 10–8 | 12–5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–2–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 9–10 MIA in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 19.