Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Gary SanchezBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Marlins- Liam HicksBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Sánchez singled to center, Frelick scored and Mitchell scored, Turang to third.3–5
- 6Sanoja singled to center, Hicks scored and Caissie scored, Sanoja to second.1–5
- 6Mitchell grounded out to first, Hamilton scored.1–3
- 1Hicks singled to left, Lopez scored.0–3
- 1Ramírez grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Edwards scored, Stowers out at second, Lopez to third.0–2
- 1Marsee scored, Lopez to second, Edwards to third on wild pitch by Misiorowski.0–1
- 1Marsee scored on Misiorowski wild pitch, Lopez to second on wild pitch by Misiorowski, Edwards to third on wild pitch by Misiorowski.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 51%
- ML MIL -105 / MIA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- MIA: Elo 44.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -104
- MIL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.7 – 3.8 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −4 | MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +41 Elo | MIL 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 4th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 7–512th of 30 |
| 28th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 149321st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301544 | Elo rating | 147926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–8 | 7–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders | 11–9 | 13–6–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–2–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 11–10 MIA in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 21.