Milwaukee Brewers at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting2-5, 4 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Kevin McGonigleBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vierling doubled to center, McGonigle scored and Pérez scored.12–4
- 9McGonigle singled to right, Keith scored, Pérez to third.12–2
- 8Sánchez grounded out to second, Contreras scored, Bauers to third.12–1
- 8Bauers doubled to left, Perkins scored, Contreras to third.11–1
- 8Contreras singled to left, Hamilton scored, Perkins to second.10–1
- 8Turang hit sacrifice fly to left, Frelick scored, Hamilton to third.9–1
- 8Perkins hit by pitch, Ortiz scored, Hamilton to second, Frelick to third.8–1
- 8Rengifo singled to right, Mitchell scored.7–1
- 8Mitchell tripled to right, Sánchez scored.6–1
- 7Contreras singled to left, Perkins scored, Turang to third.5–1
- 7Turang singled to left, Hamilton scored, Perkins to third.4–1
- 4Báez grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Greene scored, Lee out at second, Torkelson to third.3–1
- 2Turang singled to right, Frelick scored and Rengifo scored, Turang to second, Hamilton thrown out at home.3–0
- 2Frelick singled to right, Mitchell scored, Rengifo to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 50%
- ML MIL -108 / DET -112
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- DET: Elo 48.2%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -102
- MIL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.0 – 4.0 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +8 | MIL: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +12 Elo | MIL 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.64th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.78th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 7th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 8–11st of 30 |
| 27th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301542 | Elo rating | 150714th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–9 | 10–13 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 12–9 | 10–11–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 5–4 DET in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.