Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Reds- Matt McLainBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lowe homered to right center (396 feet), Steer scored.8–9
- 8Carpenter homered to right (368 feet), Keith scored.8–7
- 8Torkelson homered to left (435 feet).6–7
- 7Stephenson doubled to left, Lowe scored.5–7
- 7De La Cruz scored on error, Lowe safe at first on throwing error by second baseman Báez, Lowe safe at second on error.5–6
- 7McLain homered to center (419 feet), Myers scored.5–5
- 6Lowe homered to right center (438 feet).5–3
- 5McLain homered to center (421 feet), Myers scored.5–2
- 4Jones singled to center, Torkelson scored.5–0
- 3Vierling doubled to center, McGonigle scored and Torres scored.4–0
- 3Báez homered to center (403 feet).2–0
- 2Greene homered to right center (405 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 51%
- ML DET -115 / CIN -105
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- DET: Elo 48.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -104
- CIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.5 – 4.5 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −5 | DET: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +9 Elo | CIN 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.114th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 25th of 304–10 | Road vs home | 6–619th of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149222nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301507 | Elo rating | 150615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–15 | 15–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–10 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders | 12–12–2 | 13–11–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 5–4 CIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.