Cincinnati Reds at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Twins- Victor CaratiniBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 10Hinds doubled to left, Benson scored and Suárez scored.7–4
- 10De La Cruz scored on fielding error by left fielder Martin, Suárez safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Gray, Suárez safe at second on error.5–4
- 9Martin doubled to left, Outman scored.4–4
- 9Friedl doubled to center, Myers scored, Steer scored and Benson scored.4–3
- 4Stewart grounded out to second, De La Cruz scored.1–3
- 3Caratini singled to right, Larnach scored, Bell to second.0–3
- 3Bell singled to right, Buxton scored, Larnach to third.0–2
- 1Caratini hit sacrifice fly to center, Buxton scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML CIN -105 / MIN -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 48.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- CIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.0 – 4.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −4 | CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +11 Elo | CIN 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 5.17th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.78th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–2 | Road vs home | 7–513th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 150214th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Elo rating | 148224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–9 | 12–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 11–9–1 | 11–9–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 7–4 MIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.