San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jung Hoo LeeBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Reds- P.J. HigginsBatting1-2
- Chase BurnsPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Schmitt singled to center, Lee scored, Ramos to third.3–0
- 7Lee singled to left, Chapman scored.2–0
- 7Chapman doubled to left, Arraez scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 52%
- ML SF +100 / CIN -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- CIN: Elo 53.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -109
- SF +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.9 – 4.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −8 | SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +23 Elo | CIN 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 3.626th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–5 | Road vs home | 6–517th of 30 |
| 7th of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 149221st of 30 |
| 21st of 301489 | Elo rating | 150116th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–11 | 10–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 5–9 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7–3 | 10–7–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 11–10 CIN in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 21.